What will the Lipstick Effect look like in an era of “clean girl” makeup?

Written by Anna Moehn (W’26); Edited by Ria Saraswat (W’25)

During times of economic volatility, economists have turned to one product to predict financial trends: lipstick. Known as the lipstick effect, consumers will still spend money on a small indulgence, most commonly lipstick, during economic hardships. Many refer to this as the income effect–as incomes fall, the demand for inferior goods increases. 

During the post-Covid-19 recession, economists saw an outlier for the first time in the market: lipstick sales didn’t increase. However, there was still an uptick in various forms of skin care and different makeup products. 

As people began to use their increased free time during the shutdown picking up new hobbies and learning new skills, many also spent their time learning about sustainability. A renewed interest in simple and sustainable living grew, which heavily translated into the beauty industry. People began to look deeply into the ingredients of their skincare products, and how they were made. The e-commerce industry reaped the rewards as a desire for ethically sourced and clean products skyrocketed. 

On social media, this new hyperawareness gave rise to a new buzz term, “the clean girl aesthetic.” Type “clean girl makeup” into your Tik Tok search engine and millions of results are displayed. Glowy skin and glossy lips, this new makeup trend can be categorized as minimalist. 

Three beauty brands are leading the charge of this new trend. Rare Beauty, Kosas, and Dior have created a striking gap between them and other companies. Profits have increased for these three companies between 54-142% in the previous six months, and they are only continuing to increase. 

These companies all focus their products on glowy looks. From shining highlighter to the perfect lip gloss, they have perfected the effortless “no makeup” look. No longer will matte foundation or striking red lips be found in the coming years. So, a new question arises. 

What will the Lipstick Effect look like in an era of “clean girl” makeup?