How’s the Economy Doing?

Written by Uma Mukhopadhyay (C‘28); Edited by Maggie Goldman (C’28)

So, what really brought the maxi skirt back in style? Or even the kitten heel?

While it might be Fall 2024 runway trends and New York City-esque street style, economists have been suggesting that the heights of our heels and lengths of our skirts may indicate the state of the economy.

This theory — coined by former Wharton professor George Taylor in the 1920s — is called the hemline index, which argues that skirt lengths are indicators of market conditions. In 1926, Taylor noticed that flappers’ dresses rose during the flamboyant Roaring ‘20s, a period marked by increased consumption. However, when the Great Depression struck in the ‘30s, hemlines fell again. So, shorter skirts meant a better economy.

Throughout Western fashion history, the hemline index phenomenon has repeatedly appeared in periods of economic prosperity and downturn.

After World War II, the 1950s and ‘60s in the Western Hemisphere was marked by an economic roar, and thus, mini skirts were all the rage. Then, the end of the 1960s came with economic failures, leading to the rise of floor-length skirts worn by those in the counterculture movement. An oil embargo that accelerated inflation and decreased stock market values continued the age of maxi skirts — and increased the heights of high heels. The 2008 recession increased the high-heel heights, with a median height of seven inches observed in the New York Post in 2009.

Fashion journalists like Carole Owens suggest that women of the Great Depression elongated their skirts when they couldn’t afford silk stockings, a feature of the time. An IBM analysis suggested that heels heightened during economic downturns as an act of escapism, and higher heels were observed during the Great Depression, the 1970s Arab oil embargo, and the 2008 recession. Even lipstick sales increased during economic downturns, acting as a cheap accessory to complement a less pricey outfit.

More recently, responses to COVID-19 brought one of the worst economic downturns in history. During the pandemic, runway trends saw heels upwards of four inches. But what does that mean for the current trends in maxi skirts and kitten heels in 2024? 

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the United States’ Gross Domestic Product and personal income has increased steadily over the last two quarters. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate has increased, decreased, and then remained steady for the past two months.

With the fashion industry becoming more diverse in their production, it’s increasingly difficult to determine whether fashion trends are born from economic trends in the 21st century. Regardless, with the popularity of kitten heels, it makes sense to see that GDP is prospering. And we shouldn’t ignore that ultra-mini skirts are in style too. On the contrary, increased unemployment rates show that it’s not unnatural to see maxi skirts back in style simultaneously. 

With such a focus on the economy during the 2024 presidential election, I hope that we’ll at least continue to wear kitten heels and mini-skirts for some time.